I am not joking when I say this. Due to constant searches on housing in Japan, Facebook seems to be throwing its algo and think I am interested in a Japan property. So recently, they shared with me properties in Japan (Kawasaki City) going at USD$460,000 or about SGD$610,000 for properties of 50 mins travelling time to Tokyo Station and 50 mins to airport via train, of 1,100 square feet and a 2-3 years old house
If i were to extrapolate this to Singapore's context, it is akin to travelling from Woodlands or Sembawang area. While there is no data of 2-3 year old resale flat because Singapore law forbids the sale of such resale HDB, we do have data for 5 year old resale HDB flat of that floor area and in that area.
A search on HDB resale transaction based on these parameters tells 5 year old HDB resales are going at SGD$680,000-$820,000.
Fringe Properties in Tokyo Area are Much Cheaper than Singapore's and Why?
There are other areas of Tokyo too where like-for-like and travelling on public transport, their housing is cheaper than Singapore's. And unfortunately in Tokyo suburb areas, their property prices are not increasing much.
For context, housing prices in Singapore has risen at a faster rate than Tokyo's. Why is this so? This is due to Japan's cultural reluctance to accept foreigners.
Due to this, the number of foreigners on long term pass and PR residing in Japan is extremely low at 3% vis-a-vis Singapore's 40%. While there are now foreign workers in Japan low-skill labour spectrum such as convincence stores or hotels; in proportion, it is still a small number. In short, the population trend of Japan has hampered Japan's housing prices.
Jap's population problem is so well documented and known that overall the population is declining. Adding of foreigners has not offset the local's attrition due to death. Far flung places of Japan have seen home prices going at a few hundred or thousand dollars because they are now abandoned.
Reversal of Singapore Populaiton Policy will Cause Property Prices to Crash and People Here to Suffer
Doing a "what if" Marvel like thinking, the question is what happens if Singapore becomes as inward as Japan and is not accepting of foreigners. The answer is simple: 25-30% fall in housing prices.
Japan has seen it and is trying to stem the residential housing price decline. If Singapore does it, the first order effect is there will be a wave of bad loans and DBS will have to massively impair its home loan portfolio.
I am not sure if MAS has stress test a 25% decline in HDB and condo prices, but based on current parameters, there will be a tremendous amount of equity top up required of home owners in Singapore. Consumption will fall and the second order effect is that those who had just received TOP for condo are likely required to pay 15% more via cash or CPF or risk themselves being declared bankrupt and lose the condo they had put their CPF in.
In short, Singapore can never turn back the clock because residential prices will collapse and many individuals who own two or more properties via leverage will be in a world of pain.
<Not vested in Any Property But Just Thinking How our population policy cannot be reversed because It means the end of the Property Bubble here with Many Asset-Rich people becoming bankrupts>
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