Wednesday 23 December 2015

Review of 2015

2015 has not been a kind investment year. For this year, investing returns is negative 19.2% (due to the fall in Penguin and writing off fully China Fishery's value).

Despite the negative investment returns, overall value of my portfolio has increased by $19,000 to the region of $238,000. This is due to my tendency of saving a high proportion of income earned from work; this shows why at a young age, saving is a good habit because the magnitude in loss/gain from a small portfolio will be outweighed by the savings we add to it. 

However, as we get older, inadvertently our portfolio gets larger. Then investment returns becomes a greater influencing factor than savings. Hence,  that is why investing should start from young - we can afford to make investment mistakes, learn from them and not suffer the large magnitude of losses, which would have taken place when we are older.

For 2016

Nothing much will change. My prospecting of undervalued gems will still revolve around the company's cash flow generation ability. My expectation is that the O&G sector and their demand derived companies will continue to struggle due to the oil downturn. In addition, the office and retail sector will be affected by the over supply, especially when Guoco Tower opens in 4Q 2016.

On the blog front, I hope to come across interesting articles which will be worth sharing with readers as well as penning some saving habits articles instead of the usual company analysis.

Despite the gloomy economic outlook, this should not be an excuse for another year's of negative investment return. The twin pillars of investing and saving should work their magic and achieve a portfolio of $280,000

Monday 21 December 2015

Recent Portfolio Transactions

Due to the loss of Office Starter 2010 on my computer, I have not been able to copy and paste my Excel into my portfolio update. This is why my portfolio on this blog has not been updated. Hence, this post is to highlight my recent purchases with a short review behind their purchase.

Accordia Golf Trust

At the recent low of 50 cents, I have purchased another 10 lots (potential 8% yield at this level). My analysis of AGT can be found here

Kingsmen Creative

I have purchased 10 lots during the recent sell down. The company has a moat due to its good reputation in service delivery within the industry. Its business is in fitting out retail stores and exhibitions; and has recurring customers such as the annual F1 Singapore GP. This serves to show its reputation.

Recently, Kingsmen purchased K Fix and that has affected its cash flow generation ability. The expansion of HQ too will affect Kingsmen's cash flow generation, in turn its dividends. 

Currently, the slowdown in China and Singapore's retail market has resulted in a fall in retail profits. However, in the long run, a rebound of earnings is likely to happen which hopefully means, a return to.its 4 cents annual dividend.

First Ship Lease Trust

Company is experiencing an upturn especially in its product tanker business. Furthermore, I am impressed with the company's current cash flow generation. Investment Moats has written a comprehensive article on it . Purchase of 40 lots.

Saturday 12 December 2015

Sarine Technologies - Suriving the Diamond Downturn

The Singapore stock market has had a particularly rough year, along with it, Sarine Technologies has suffered a torrid year. Year to date, its share price has fallen by half and is at the 1.30 levels due to a slump in earnings.

Overview
The company is in the business of providing technology-related products to manufacturers which turn rough diamonds into polished ones. Despite being an "IT company", Sarine Technologies have demonstrated why it is important to analyse factors that are beyond the company's control such as its customers and the state of the diamond industry.

The diamond industry especially in India, is experiencing a diamond crisis. Market demand for diamonds has been muted in both China and India and many Indian diamond manufacturers are struggling. This has affected Sarine. Its earnings have fallen 90% and it is unlikely Sarine will report a 3 cents EPS for this FY, let alone last year's 7.8 cents. This event shows how dependent Sarine is to the diamond market thus it can be known as a derived demand support company. On the sgx, there are many such companies such as Penguin and Sembmarine who have products supporting certain niches of an industry.

Will Sarine Survive?
Fortunately for Sarine, it has little competitors to its specialized service. Its Galaxy products have a dominant market position and its business model has moved to a recurring revenue base (similar to Silverlake's) which is wonderful. Aided by a balance sheet with little liabilities and good cash flow generation.

Furthermore, Sarine is trying to branch out beyond diamond to other gemstones by having new products like Sarine Loupe and Allegro. However, as these are new products, it will take a while for Sarine to diversify its revenue dependence away from diamonds.

To conclude, Sarine is likely to survive this diamond crisis; however the question is the length and terror of this slump which will hurt Sarine's earnings in the near to mid term. Sarine may have to resort to debts to continue its innovation and survival; but given its pristine balance sheet, it should be able to borrow.

Valuation
At a forcasted EPS of 1 SG cents, Sarine is trading at an eye-watering forward P/E of 133x. However, what matters is the recovery of earnings when the diamond industry turns up. Should it regain to last year's earnings of 11 SG cents, current valuation may not be too shabby.

Sunday 6 December 2015

Accordia Golf Trust – Normalization of yields/Projecting its future

Accordia Golf Trust (AGT) has fallen from its IPO highs to 55.5 cents as of writing. Given the drastic fall in price and sharesinv.com showing an impressive trailing dividend yield of 10.6%, one may be tempted to initiate a position in AGT. Let’s find out if it is worth it

Yield
AGT’s FY15’s distribution statement was lumpy and is difficult to build a projection on. However, this current FY’s first half distribution statement is easier to understand and its figures are not affected by IPO distributions/proceeds from borrowings/etc. From this HY, one can see that the distribution to shareholders is about 2.3 SGD cents (10% income retained).
AGT's FY 16 1H Distribution Statement
AGT's FY 15 2H Distribution Statement
Furthermore, from AGT’s presentation, the second half of the FY is always weaker than the first half's. Hence based on current first half performance, 2H’s distribution is likely to be lower due to the seasonality of visitors. This is further shown by the FY15 4Q result where AGT had a weak quarter during the winter period (4Q income available for distribution was boosted by a very positive working capital change which I do not foresee will be that positive again). Hence I expect 2H’s distribution to be at SGD 1.7 cents (10% income retained)

Visitor ship Data
Hence full year distribution will be 4 cents or 7.2% yield at 55.5 cents.

Business operations
From its financial statements, we can see AGT has a relatively fixed expense base, at 11,000 million JPY mark in each of the past 3 quarters. Hence one has to take note distribution attributable to shareholders is dependent greatly on the revenue generated by the golf courses.

From its three segments, only the restaurant segment has been holding up, but its golf course and membership revenue are showing a slight dip. Due to the relatively fixed cost base, the small decrease in operating income (-5.8%) resulted in a larger than proportion decrease in net profit (-17.7%). This affected income available for distribution to shareholders. 
AGT's Key Financials

To boost distribution, one way is to buy more golf courses from its parent which AGT can do due to its low leverage ratio of 28.8%.

The only visible positive is the upcoming Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Hence for 2019 and 2020, uptick in the revenue segments will be seen; but till then, AGT has to manage the challenges of declining golf course and membership revenue.                   

Minor Pointers
Exchange rate - AGT’s operation is in JPY. Given that JPY is at low rates against SGD, my personal opinion is that the yen will not depreciate much further against the Sing dollar. I believe some appreciation will occur as the Sing economy is in negative territory and a depreciation by MAS will help. However, the change in exchange rate will be small

Interest rates - With Japan embarking on its own QE, I do not expect much spike in interest rates for AGT’s term loans, so interest expense should be the same. AGT’s leverage ratio stands at 28.8%.

Conclusion
At a forecasted 7.2% yield, AGT seems to be a decent investment proposition. It's yields and leverage is better than an upcoming IPO (the latter's yield boosted by strategic investors' decision not to take their entitlement). However, comparing a golf course trust against a retail trust is not advisable.

Comparisons aside, AGT have positives such as the upcoming Tokyo Olympic 2020 which will boost its revenue and profits (AGT has a relatively fixed cost base) and further headroom to purchase more golf courses. 

A negative of AGT is that its revenue does not have a lease-like nature and hence is not as stable as REITS; it can fall drastically and affect distributions available. Hence investors have to weight factors such as: a) being able to obtain 7% yield from more stable investments such as CRCT, b) the gearing of AGT against these other investments and c) growth potential of AGT due to its low gearing.

I have initiated a small position in AGT at 55.5 cents of 5 lots. Pending further fall in prices, it is unlikely I will add further as I am of the view the market has not fully factored the 2H surprise fall in distributions. I am hoping to get in the region of 50 cents (~8% yield).

Saturday 28 November 2015

China Fishery’s Trouble with HSBC

HSBC has recently filed a winding up application on China Fishery to the High Court of Hong Kong. It pertains to china Fishery’s (CF) difficulty in servicing its debts. From China Fishery’s AR 2014, it can be seen that China Fishery had US $303 Mil of debts which needs to be settled within this FY and it has paid US $131 Mil thus far. Similarly, in the financial year before, CF had a US $505 Million debt but was successfully rolled over.

Chna Fishery's Debt Profile
The trouble it seems is that one of its 5 lenders, HSBC, is refusing to continue to roll over its debts. One problem with CF is its inability to have a quick cash conversion cycle. It takes a while to convert its inventories to receivable and then to cash. With just one of its 5 lenders no longer allowing the rolling of debt game, CF is experiencing cash flow problems.

It comes to show how important cash flow management is because banks are free to “take the umbrella away” anytime and leave you in cash flow trouble. Ironically on a full FY basis, CF is able to produce approximately US $165 mil of cash before working capital changes. With about $18 mil in bank expenses, $35 Mil bond payments and income taxes, the company is able to generate about US$112 mil. In addition, from now to 28 March 2016, CF will receive US $61 million in inventory/cash from its supplier. Hence it seems had HSBC allowed another rolling over, it is likely CF will be able to partially pay off its debts.

Takeaway

When analyzing a company, It will be good to see the debt profile. Given the current economic slowdown, it seems banks are now not hesitant to take away the proverbial "umbrella". This will be precarious for companies who are debt laden and rely on the rolling over of debts to support their operations. For CF's case, only one of its five lenders had decided not to play ball, and CF is now in trouble.

Sunday 8 November 2015

Getting to know: Home Protection Scheme (HPS)

The Home Protection Scheme (HPS) is a mortgage-reducing term insurance which covers an individual’s liabilities on home loans in the event of death or permanent disability. Its premiums are affordable and is a government initiative. For every $100,000 coverage under HPS, the annual premium is about $76; that is cheaper than most term insurance.

Eligibility

Currently home owners making HDB loan repayments through CPF-OA have to be enrolled into HPS. Exemptions from HPS is allowed if one shows proof of other forms of insurance coverage. However, in my opinion, the HPS is the most affordable plan and it is difficult to find a similar plan at a lower dollar to coverage rate. It is good too for HDB owners servicing their home loan through a bank to consider the HPS.

Why it is important to learn about HPS

Often, financial planners may unwittingly advise to obtain more coverage (through whole life plans) on the pretext that you are now a home owner with a housing liability (home loan). As many may not be aware that they are covered under HPS, as the funding of premiums is through CPF savings, they may land up in a situation of being double covered - under HPS and a more expensive insurance plan recommended by the adviser. Hence knowing if you are covered under HPS reduces your insurance expense.

To summarise, the HPS covers an individual’s home liability loan. You have to be insured under HPS if the servicing of your housing loan is through CPF-OA, following this reasoning, one can safely presume many new HDB owners are in fact covered by HPS (I wonder how many are aware of this). Furthermore, HPS is one of the best dollar for coverage term insurance, being priced at approx. $76 per $100,000 coverage.

For majority of Singaporeans, it is important to be aware if we are covered by HPS before embarking on insurance planning. It ensures optimal planning and prevent us from falling prey to purchase seemingly more expensive private insurance. To know if you are covered under HPS, do check your CPF statements to see if an annual HPS premium is deducted from your CPF savings. Alternatively, feel free to email CPF to make an inquiry.

Saturday 7 November 2015

Lesson from Tiger Airway's takeover by SIA

Image result for Tigerairways image

Singapore Airlines has made a takeover offer $0.41 per share for Tiger Airway. While it sounds like a good deal representing a 33% premium; shareholders who had “patiently” held Tiger since IPO and subscribed to every round of rights would have paid an average cost per share of $0.67 per share. For that “patient” shareholder, the acceptance of the takeover is a 38.8% negative return.

Turning back to 2010, one will remember how hot Tiger Air’s IPO was. Riding on the budget airline craze, SIA did an IPO for part of its stake in Tiger. The IPO was heavily oversubscribed (similar to a recent IPO). However, time and time again, history has shown that business fundamentals prevail and not the popularity of the IPO, the anticipated growth did not materialize and instead Tiger Airways bled massive cash. Events have gone full circle and now SIA is buying the remaining stake it does not own in Tiger for a song in 2015.

No matter how, the fundamentals of a business always prevails and airline stocks are a terrible investment unless in extremely depressed prices. It is a commodity industry where price is the main factor and yet airlines have to pay hundred of millions to continuously improve their fleet. As Richard Branson once quipped: “If you want to be a Millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline.

For many Tiger shareholders, it may be time to reluctantly accept the offer as without the support of its strong parent (SIA), Tiger may not be able to survive.  In the short to medium term, Tiger will take delivery of s$2 Billion worth of Airbus 320 until 2025. Even though Tiger has turned around, it seems unlikely Tiger will generate that much cash by 2025 to finance the order; hence becoming a wholly owned subsidiary under SIA's wings will help it financially. A lose-lose proposition is in store for the foolish patient investor. 

Saturday 31 October 2015

Scholar? Straight A? Big Fish, Small Fish? Let’s talk about Financial Sense

A scholar? Straight A, Good JC student? Unfortunately, I am neither. While I will be proud to showcase my “O” and “A” certs dotted with more “B” than “A” grades, displaying another achievement of mine (a 27-year-old investor) is perhaps more fitting as a financial blogger.

Counter
Units
Price
Allocation (%)
Penguin
588700
0.15
35.16
China Fishery
260000
0.092
9.53
Fischer Tech
18000
0.905
6.49
TTJ
29000
0.41
4.73
Silverlake
395000.5759.04
Moolahsense
1
$12,200
4.86
Cash*

$75,800
30.19
Total SGD

$251,117.50
100.00%

As of end Oct 15, my portfolio stands at approximately $250,000. [Portfolio update: Sold some China Fishery, Penguin and XMH.]

While I do admit I am a “father-mother” scholarship holder, this does not take away my financial achievement. During my second year of university, I had asked myself: “what could I do to differentiate me from my peers?” You see, I was an average undergraduate who hailed from Innova Junior College - yup that 20 pointer JC, the privileged few which could accept me.

I realized financial literacy was something we had learnt little during our school days but is one of the most useful and relevant skill for the real world. It was something I knew that will get me ahead of the rat race – financial security meant less stress and the ability to take on more risk to advance a career. Furthermore, with financial sense, an individual is equipped with the knowledge to accumulate more wealth and like it or not; money is one of the stress factors of family ties. The lack/struggle to attain financial resources is a source of strain between a couple’s relationship.

Hence as financial bloggers, it is paramount that we continue to offer relevant financial information and nuggets of truth; while clutching at the straws of hopes that readers will become financially sensible from our articles and apply it to their everyday lives. It is important for us to share information and ideas (some of which I have blogged about) such as:
  • Working Hard, Saving Well 
  • How insurance works and why certain, if not most, insurance policies may not be best for our financial future but definitely beneficial to the agent’s pockets
  • Good financial habits such as “Income - Savings = Expenses” aka paying yourself first
  • Realizing things like diamond rings are a financial mistake and perhaps its time to challenge societal norms
  • Learning to invest wisely through value investing, "ETF vs Unit Trust"
I hope I will be able to continuously dig out more information and share on investment analysis and financial knowledge. Of course during this journey, it is unavoidable I will make financial and investment mistakes.

Can Osim Turnaround its Fortunes?

Osim is synonymous with its massage chairs. Besides the massage chair business, it holds other retail brands as well such as GNC and TWG Tea. Interestingly, the major market and revenue contributor to Osim is North Asia, to be exact China.

Signs of trouble in China?

While the Chinese Government has painted a moderately strong outlook on China, Osim’s result is showing otherwise. 9M current FY results has reported an overall decline of 12% revenue and a 44.4% fall in profits. This shows how cyclical Osim’s products are and the exposure it has to the China market. While its share prices have fallen to S$1.36, the question now is: Is Osim an undervalued buy with its growth story seemingly over.

With the slowing Chinese market, Osim has reported the third consecutive double digit decline in sales. While the company is still generating positive cash flow with a strong balance sheet, I still think Osim is rather too high a price. At an estimated EPS of 6 cents (and same amount in forecasted cash flow generation); $1.36 signals that the company is selling at about 22x PE. With its neutral growth story, I do find a PE/P/FCF of 22x as high.

Furthermore, I am not sanguine on Osim’s strategic investment in Trek 2000. There are many better companies out there for strategic investment and diversification. 

Outlook

In its commentary, Osim has signaled it is positive in sustaining its no1 position in the Chinese market. While I believe that is true, being no1 in a slowing market is not a positive as well. It remains to be seen how will Osim turn around its fortunes, especially when it has an upcoming convertible bond to redeem. 

Saturday 17 October 2015

Peer to Peer Lending: How I invest and minimize my risk

Some readers may have noticed: Under “My Portfolio” section, I have listed Moolahsense as part of my portfolio. What is Moolahsense?

Moolahsense is a peer to peer lending website where registered users are able to lend money directly to a company who is doing a fund raising campaigns. While the returns seem high, do note that the registered users assumes a large risk where the company may default anytime. Fortunately, the money registered users lend to these companies are similar to bonds; however these bonds are only enforceable in Singapore.

How I screen companies

My criterion is simple and that is to only “invest money” in companies which are past the startup stage of their life cycle. The reason is because matured companies have an operating track record in that business unlike start-ups. It indicates a lower risk of default as compared to start-ups whose business are new and cash flow is tight. 

It is worth noting in Singapore; almost 9 in 10 businesses fail within their first one-two years of operation. In addition, I go for companies that plan to use the proceeds to finance projects or to expand outlets. I will do my online searches to verify the company’s operations.

The second criterion is to check the debt to equity ratio and interest coverage ratios. Like many listed companies, I prefer companies who have a debt to equity which is lower than 0.6. Also, a higher interest coverage ratio indicates the company’s ability to repay debts. A higher interest coverage ratio indicates a stronger financial position.

Moolahsense Portfolio

Below is a screenshot of my portfolio.

Moolahsense Portfolio

While the returns is high, do note the risk is high too as there is a possibility of losing your entire capital unlike shares, I will recommend that only well-versed individuals invest via moolahsense. This is because understanding of finance and due diligence is really needed to invest in peer to peer financing.

Saturday 3 October 2015

Steps to take to accumulate more wealth

Some have asked how I had accumulated $200,000 at a young age. Below were some steps I took.

Save a significant portion of salary

Don’t live a paycheck to paycheck lifestyle, save a portion of your salary for investments and future consumption.

Don’t put too much Money in Bank accounts and FD

I hate putting a lot of money in saving accounts because the interest rates of these accounts are very low. The only advantage saving accounts have is the liquidity it provides. I suggest to place approximately $10,000 in these saving accounts unless a major expense is coming. This is because $10,000 equates to approximately 3 months expenses incurred by ordinary Singaporeans.

The rest of the money should be placed in Singapore Saving Bonds (SSB) or stocks. This is because the SSB provides a higher interest during the initial years and this interest becomes higher if you keep it with government longer. Furthermore, the SSB is relatively liquid where you are able to make a withdrawal in one month. This will be handy in situations where you need the money. Also, there are no conditions we have to meet to enjoy these returns unlike the OCBC 360 and UOB account. 

For starters, I will recommend Singaporeans set aside some money to bid for SSB once a year. Fixed Deposits in banks are a definite no no given the current climate. They lock you up for a period of time and offer rates only in the region of SSB's. I will only consider SGD denominated FD if the interest offered is at least 2% per year.

Buy Term and Avoid Whole Life/Endowment/ILP

I have shown how buying a term policy and investing the rest in CPF and STI ETF is likely to yield a better return than whole life. You can read it here. This method is likely to empower you to accumulate more wealth than insurance plans.

Investing when Young

This is very important. Investing does not mean putting money in bank FDs or insurance policies. It is to invest in the stock market.

Yes, the stock market is a casino to the layman. However, there is still a way to grow one's wealth in the stock market. That is via the SPDR STI ETF or Nikko AM ETF. Both are index funds and are good instruments to help grow your wealth.

For individuals with a sound understanding in finance and accounting, it is likely the stock market will not be a casino to you. This is because the wealth of experience and knowledge you have accumulated will help discern between the value traps and stocks with true value. If discerning these stocks are still a challenge, it is advisable to stick to the 2 ETFs mentioned above.

Wednesday 30 September 2015

Monthly Update of Portfolio [September 2015]

Accumulated

Accumulated Silverlake Axis, Penguin and China Fishery (10 lots) to my portfolio. This is because these stocks have fallen to attractive values, especially Silverlake. While the verdict of Silverlake's investigation has not been released, my personal sense is that there will not be much adverse news of contagion liabilities lurking in Silverlake's balance sheet.

Divested

I have divested KSH in the run up of its share price. This is because its MOS became relatively much lower than Silverlake to warrant a switch. In addition, I am not optimistic of its Prudential Tower project (approx 20% of assets post bond redemption) given the poor office outlook and slow strata sales (only 7 floors sold). 

Future

Currently, Silverlake seems to be the most attractive stock. Selling at a forecast 6% dividend yield with little debt, it seems to be better than Vicom (3% Dividend yield). I am also eyeing other stocks such as FCL, Teckwah and BBR; however their prices have not fallen to low levels to be attractive.


Sunday 27 September 2015

Starting work to support my hobby

a
As many of you will know, I have a very expensive hobby of growing “money trees”. It takes seed capital, effort to source for fertile soil and time to grow these “trees”. And to add to my frustration, these trees sometimes become diseased and die on me.

While investing has not been easy, it has been a fruitful experience and I have gained much knowledge.

Unfortunately, I am running out of seeds and my planted “trees” have not bore fruits. Hence, I will be working to obtain the seed capital for investing. As such, frequency of my posting will be reduced. 

And if you asked:
a


Friday 25 September 2015

Thoughts on "Diamond are a sham..." and are Diamond Rings a Financial Mistake


Came across an interesting article by Robin Dhar titled "Diamonds are a sham and It's Time We Stop Getting Engaged with Them". It is interesting to learn when we buy a diamond ring; more than 50% of its value is lost as soon as we leave the store. Imagine learning that the $10,000 diamond ring you had bought yesterday is only worth $4,000 in resale value today. That's worse than buying gold or silver which only loses 5-10% of its value.

Hence, the diamond ring is perhaps the biggest financial mistake, ranking higher than owning a car - a depreciating asset but with benefits of convenience.

In addition, it is an eye opener to learn diamonds are not as rare as the price may imply. They are expensive due to the marketing delusion that “diamonds are forever” and the monopolistic nature of the diamond industry where companies work to restrict the supply of diamonds sold to the market. Furthermore, there are synthetic diamonds which cost a fraction of natural diamonds. And is something the common woman on the street is unable to distinguish from natural diamonds (unless she owns a laboratory). You can read here about synthetic diamonds.

Challenging Societal Norms

What mystifies me is how De Beers had marketed diamonds and in the process ingrained into us that the Diamond is a symbol of love and social status:

"It is essential that these pressures be met by the constant publicity to show that only the diamond is everywhere accepted and recognized as the symbol of betrothal."  and
"Promote the diamond as one material object which can reflect, in a very personal way, a man's ... success in life." 

This phenomenon was only a recent campaign in 1938. But with the invention by De Beers that diamond is essential in courtship, males have unwittingly parted ways with a large chunk of their wealth for a ring which loses more than 50% of its value upon leaving the shop. A brilliant marketing gimmick by De Beers.

Similarly in Singapore, it is a norm that we turn to a financial adviser or banker to grow/ protect our wealth. However, if one stops to think, these parties may not be the best. This is because Singapore’s wealth management industry is dominated by commission based agents who rely on the sale of financial products for salary/profits. There are very little fee-based financial advisers. As a result, there is a conflict of interest where the highest commission product for them may turn out to be the worst financial product for you (e.g. ILP). In fact, I have written how even whole life insurance is not optimal. We can create our own product which is likely to provide a better return than whole life but it gives very little commission to agents.

This is probably why many Singaporeans have difficulty saving for retirement. The adherence to societal norms results in financial mistakes that drains our savings that otherwise could be invested in better assets which will compound over time.

Monday 21 September 2015

My Past Investment Mistake

In recent times, I had purchased a stock called Penguin International. Then it was 20+ cents and had price earnings and free cash flow ratio in the low single digits. It was a value investor's dream reporting strong growth and was priced attractively at its reported numbers. However, the share price has moved south and is now at 12 cents.

What Changed?

I had overlooked the fact Penguin's earning could be affected by a downturn. Penguin’s customers were companies in the oil & gas industry. Unfortunately, a downturn did happen and now deliveries and orders for its vessels has slowed. As a result, lesser revenue was recognized with increasing inventories. Penguin’s profitability only decreased one year after the slump of oil price.

Learning Points

This episode showed how reported numbers are merely the rear view mirror of a car; no matter how good they are, what matters is where the road is heading to. And to learn about the future earnings of a company, it is down to our ability to comprehend the industry's outlook. This is particularly true for cyclical industries such as: Oil gas, Property/REITS, Commodities and Shipping.

For example, while local properties companies have reported slightly increased profits, their share prices have stagnated or declined. This is likely due to their revenue recognition method. Majority of revenue currently recognised are for residential projects which had been sold in 2011/2012. Their Singapore segment will experience a decline later as residential sales had slowed since 2013. This too is applicable for Sembmarine and Keppel, where order books are only starting to decrease only a year after the oil slump.

Hence when investing in cyclical companies, it is always important to understand where the industry is heading before investing. While the financial ratios may look good at the current share price, there may be a reason why Mr. Market is still pricing the company at a low figure.


Sunday 20 September 2015

Save $25 for the first $60 purchase of online groceries [Only for DBS card members]

Came across this coupon on Honestbee which is only applicable for DBS credit/debit card members.

https://www.honestbee.com/promotions/dbs

Sign up before 30th September 2015 to enjoy a one time coupon of $25 discount when you spend a minimum worth of $60 at any single store on Honestbee website. Furthermore, you get free delivery (though you may have to wait 2 weeks or more for your orders)!

Best Way to Utilize

The simplest way is to buy $60 worth of essentials from NTUC Fairprice online via HonestBee. First, draw up a list of essentials your household needs such as 10kg bag of rice, Shampoos, Soaps etc. Then use Honestbee to buy from Fairprice Online to clock $60. It is worth noting a bag of 10kg Rice is $15.50 or $28.50 (Hom Mali Rice grains). So it may be easy to hit $60 if you are stocking on rice or shampoos.

After getting the one time $25 discount, feel free to return to your ordinary grocery shopping habits. In case you are wondering if I benefit from this shout out; I am not receiving any money or "referral credits", just sharing a tip to save some capital to Invest Wisely.