UnUsUaL Holdings: High Risk, Poor Earning Visibility. All Talk Little Action

Overview

UnUsUaL is a Singapore-based listed company focused on live event production, concert promotion, and entertainment services. Its segments include:

• Production — stage sound system, lighting, technical services

• Promotion — ticketing, sponsorships, performance rights

Why It’s “Unusual”

This is not a typical industrial or financial company; it organizes live entertainment events and try to sell the tickets for a profit.

For me, why I had started looking into Unusual is that while it is a profitable entity, its share price has faced selling pressure because its major shareholder, MM2 Asia, is in financial difficulty and financial institution are selling its owned "Unusual" shares to repay the debt.

The question I'm trying to answer is if Unusual share price justifiable at 3.8 sg cents (market cap 39 million). 

Short answer is "No" and I think Unusual is only a worthwhile investment at SG$12 million or 1.1 Sg cents

Valuation and Competitor

81% of Unusual Revenue are in the "Promotion Segment" of live entertainment and concert events such as organizing Jay Chou and Air Supply concerts. Its main competitor in Singapore is "Live Nation" who has done bigger concerts related to K pop fans. 

Unusual positions itself to appeal to a specific concert goer group such as Mandopop and Japanese Bands and old-time English bands. A unique segment on its own, Unusual has been struggling to churn enough concerts and is barely profitable. Overall, the company earns $670,000 in the first half of its financial year. Prior years, it has been making losses over failed live promotion events. In short, ROE and ROA have been negative which shows the high level of risk in investing in its shares.

Hence, my view is the company will churn out $1.2-$1.5 million annual profits and a SG$12 million market cap is where it is cheap enough for the execution risk

Unusual has Little Upcoming Live-Concerts

A simple check on its website shows it only has 02 upcoming events in 02 months

That's worrying. In fact, if you look at its pace of organizing concerts, it has only been able to do an average of 1 event monthly. The number of concerts it organizes has been decreasing since 2022.

Investors who are buying Unusual shares now at 3.8 Sg cents are likely going to face further losses.