Thursday 27 April 2023

Alibaba has lost all its gains since the "splitting" news, but it does not matter

For those who follow Alibaba news dilligently, it was announced a month ago that Alibaba will be splitting its conglomerate into 6 units.

It was a positive news which saw share prices rallying 20% over the next week. However, one month later, the 20% gain has since been wiped off and we are back to square one - at pre announcement prices.

Stock Market Voting Machine Short Term, Weighing Machine Long Term

There is a saying about the stock market:

"In the Short-Run, the Market Is a Voting Machine, But in the Long-Run, the Market Is a Weighing Machine"

This is dramatically true in Alibaba's case. The split up news made people exhuberent but once they realise nothing much changed about the business, the party ended (the downward movement in share prices is also partly attibuted to the US banking crisis which soured all stocks)

This comes to show how sensitive stock market paticipants are to the news and hypes. There is so much noise/traders that prices of a security can fluctuate; at times rally all the way up and then return all its gains later. Alibaba is only one such counter and we have seen such epsiodes repeating over the course of time.

As fundamentalists, such hype should never sway our valuation - Alibaba breaking into 6 units or remaining as 1 unit is business as usual. For me despite the news, my abscribed value of Alibaba remains unchanged at US$166.

Still vested but looking on to wonder should i add to my holdings as the current price is half of my target price.

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