End of Year 2024 Update: Buying more Business Trust and REIT For Dividend

As said in my past posts, it is likely I would purchase more Asia Pay TV Trust (APTT). I did just that.

Other purchases were UnitedHampshire REIT and Yangzijiang Financial. They are strong convictions of mine that will provide good dividend and returns to investors. 

Alibaba is becoming a smaller and smaller proportion of my holdings because I do not think President Xi Jinping will be able to instil much confidence to the economy given his poor economic policies in the past and Trump US tariffs on China. 

Portfolio is Now a 5+% Dividend Generator

Starting from the end of next quarter, I will be logging the dividend I receive. I am confident the current portfolio is of a high dividend yielder and of stable calibre, in terms of yield it is better than Singapore property bets. Purely on UnitedHampshire US REIT dividend, it will beat any Singapore property (I am already up 5% in 2 months, if any property agent still wishes to challenge).

2025

An important event for 2025 will be if APTT successfully renews its debt for a margin of 2.0%-2.5% from Taiwan Interbank. As of now, its loans have a margin of about 2% from Taiwan's TAIBOR rate. I expect a slight widening which will affect casflow. Too high a margin for its debt will hurt dividend. But as long as APTT effective cost of interest remains at 3.8% or below (currently it is at 3.3%), the trust will continue to be a 13% dividend yielder.

The second event I look towards is PRIME US REIT resumption of dividend. The US Office submarkets have not recovered and vacancies are still increasing. I expect property devaluation to still happen.

This will push PRIME US REIT's leverage above the current ratio of 46%. I expect US commercial REITs to report about 5% decline in value. Not too shabby given China is faring worse. Nevertheless, this will affect PRIME US REIT in terms of leverage and if the submarkets are not recovering fast enough, the REIT will not be able backfill vacancies to increase income and give more dividends to unitholders. I am hoping for a quick improvement in vacancy rates in PRIME US REIT's submarkets so that more dividend are rewarded to Unitholders. Targetting for a 2 US cents annual dividend to be restored starting from 1H2025 results.

OUE REIT Sold Its China Property at a 20% Loss to End 2023 Valuation, Are Assets Worth What it is Reported?

OUE REIT has sold its remaining China property, Lippo Plaza for RMB $1.917 Billion 

Interestingly, this is at a 20% discount from its last year end valuation of RMB$2.4 Billion. Unitholders of OUE has seen a 20% loss from the sale. 

Are OUE REITs Assets Valued Correctly?

This seems to be one question investors should start to ask. While it is indeed true that most REITs are valued below book value, on SGX, OUE REIT is valued at quite a distance from its NAV. At a 60 cents NAV, OUE REIT trades at 27 cents, representing a price to NAV of 0.45. That is a very wide discount. 

As the saying goes: on balance sheet, companies tend to value their assets as fully as possible and liabilities as little as possible. This could be what is happening at Capitaland Ascott REIT disposal where Capitaland has disposed its Ascott REIT shares so that liabilities can disappear from Capitaland balance sheet.

Back to OUE REIT's balance sheet, this puts into question the true worth of OUE's Office and Hotel assets. Of course, REITs pay and hire their own valuers to value and as a result of this conflict of interest, it is inevitable the hired valuers will juice up property values as high as possible, otherwise they wont be hired again next year.

Personally, I find OUE's valuation of OUE Downtown office for $930 million a little too optimistic. The property has a useful lifespan of 42 years remaining with a revenue of $48.8 million (which means net income is about $36.6 million). For an annual inflow of $36.6 million before interest expenses and 42 years, factoring 02 rounds of refurbishment capex needed, $930 million is a very optimistic number. The valuers for OUE downtown must be very optimistic of rental escalations happening at the downtown area.

A call to Call OUE's Bluff or Encashing Proftiably

Based on valuation, OUE REIT has a 0.45-0.50 price to book value. This means if the property is liqudated now at the valuer's valuation of end 2023, investors can nett about 90% in gains, excluding the approximate 7% in annual dividend yield.

In the minutes of 2024's AGM 2023, a unitholder (minutes termed him as "Unitholder A") had voiced out this discrepancy in valuation and a solution was for OUE REIT to sell off its property portfolio so that unitholders will benefit. 

I think it seems to be a sound solution. If indeed all its remaining Singapore properties are worth its value in writing by cashflow discounting and valuation of hotels per key, unit holders will gain tremendously. The valuer's usage of discount rate for its office properties at 3.5% is way lower than OUE REIT's cost of debt at 4.5%-4.9%, hence selling off its office properties can benefit the REIT.

The sale of Lippo Plaza has shown OUE REIT's valuers might be "smoking weed" when performing the maths. It was a discount of 20%. If 20% is applied on its entire portfolio, this translates to 0.65 times of the price to net book value, assuming a complete sale of assets. So it might be good for unitholders to encash on OUE REIT when the property market is at a party high. To be fair, I do think 0.7 times of the net book value can be achieved; an upside of about 55%.

OUE has 02 properties (OUE Downtown, Hilton Singapore Orchard) running low on its title deed leases. The effects of lease decay is going to hurt the REIT greatly. These 02 assets form 40% of OUE REITs value and therefore should be encashed soon to avoid financial disaster.

Unitholders of OUE REIT should sound this out urgently. The market has already seemed to price OUE REIT at such a discount knowing these information. Pherhaps OUE Unitholders should call out the bluff, even if they are wrong and the properties fetch the reported values, unitholders enjoy massive upside from current share prices. It is a very good time to call out OUE REIT's hand in this game of poker. It is a "Head I win, tails you lose" moment for anyone who buys into the current market price and call the bluff.

<Not Vested at the Moment, But May Consider Purchasing after doing purchases on APTT and other REITS)

Genting Singapore has a Management Problem and a Change In Direction Can Improve Share Prices by 60%

Genting Singapore has one of the strangest balance sheet structure for a Casino Operator. Casino operations is a capital expenditure heavy business with the need to build hotels and casino physically on a piece of land. Across the world, most casino operators employ leverage to ensure optimal shareholder return. 

Genting Berhad, Genting Singapore's Parent, employs leverage for its Malaysia operations as well for its Genting highlands casino and resort business. Similarly, in the recent expansion, Marina Bay Sands is using debt, borrowing at a low interest rate to fund its expansion.

Terrible Management of Genting Singapore is Hurting Shareholders

Too much cash (SGD$3.6 billion) is sitting on the balance sheet of Genting Singapore with reported interest income of 3% interest yield. On the other hand, Genting Singapore as a business makes about 7% in earnings yield based on current share prices. 

Genting Singapore only returns 60% of the cash it generates as dividends and keeps 40% for future expansion plans (about SGD$380 million). With a growing cash pile and only a few billion in expansion plans. It makes sense to use the excess cash in the balance sheet to conduct buybacks vis-a-vis parking the cash in the bank. 

Genting Singapore can conduct share buybacks up to $1 to $1.10 and it will still be value accretive to shareholders as compared to the option of letting the money sit in Singapore bank fixed deposits.

If the management of Genting Singapore argues the cash is set aside for future expansion plans, the question is why should the money be left sitting it down. Singapore is a country with easy access to capital and many companies including MBS has been able to obtain loans at 3+% interest. Temasek companies such as Seatrium are getting loans at the low 2% level, even Suntec and Fraser Hospitality utilises debt at a region of 4% interest. Furthermore with its cash generation ability, the amount borrowed will be repaid in a few years. The expansion plan will take 06 more years, Genting Singapore would have accumulated SGD$2 billion by then to fund. And the another 10 years to fully repay it. Again, other casino operators in the world employ leverage to fund and deliver optimal shareholder returns.

Genting Singapore shareholders should demand that the SGD$3 billion in cash be used for a stronger sharebuyback to buy back shares up to $1-1.10 level at next AGM as opposed to letting the money sit in fixed deposits. Such a move will benefit shareholders because the capital allocation will result in improved earnings per shares and asset value to all shareholders.

$6/monthly phone plan, probably the cheapest non-senior plan

For the past few months, Singaporeans might have seen the introduction of a new teleco called "eight telecom"

It has an $8/monthly plan which comes with 228gb data. To pay for the monthly plan, users have to top up credits into their eight telecom account.

Individuals can buy from shopee a $8 credit top up and 'hack' on shopee's fabulous 12 noon discount voucher to get $2 off from the purchase.

Steps

Step1: Collect a "50% coins max 200 coins Cashback" shopee voucher which is available 12 noon daily under daily vouchers.

Step2: Buy $8 credit from this shop (screenshot below). Then apply the voucher you had collected under 'platform voucher', next use/redeem any available shopee coins to offset the purchase. 

Step3: under 'message for seller', please insert the mobile number you wish to top up to (aka your mobile phone number)

So there you have it, shopee is helping us subsidize eight teleco mobile plan. I am definitely happy for their cash burning ways!

Outlook for 2025: Inflation has Tamed, Interest Rates Will be Lower, Sing Dollar is No Longer Attractive

Worldwide, central banks has started to cut interest rates. Main reason is that in Europe, the economic condition is not good. Firstly, european manufacturing is weak because they cannot compete against China, Second, Europe is suffering the same fate as USA where there is an oversupply of commercial real estate (and for them residential as well), construction has slowed. Two pillars of economy are down.

In Singapore, inflation has been tamed as well and MAS has announced no change of policy (which means no longer a gradual appreciation of the Sing Dollar). This means we will no longer see the strengthening of Sing Dollar.

How Should Singapore Investors Position

Firstly, I do not see any much strengthening of the Sing dollar moving forth. Putting my neck on the line, the USD/SGD will breach the 1.35 mark with US dollar starting to strengthen. The lowering of interest rates will benefit Malaysia as well and we could see the Sing Dollar/MYR going below 3.20. This is because Malaysia's borrowing cost will be reduced reflecting a stronger economy. Singapore is not a debt laden economy so global interest rates does not affect its financing cost much.

Lower Interest Rates Overseas will Benefit Those who buy Overseas Assets

In all, investors should think of rotating to foreign currency and buying assets overseas. Relatively, overseas assets have been giving better returns and with the potential strengthening story, holding Sing Dollar may not be good. I have been saying that REIT assets overseas are giving close to two times what Singapore REITs give and they are of better balance sheet strength; just look at LINK REIT of HK and Utdhampshire US REIT on SGX. 

And now with interest rates lowering, the financing cost of overseas REITs will fall faster than that of local REITs. What happens is that overseas REIT will start to report much higher income and in turn dividends.

Personally, I believe United Hampshire US REIT will start to increase their dividends to about 4.4 US cents in future annual dividend. It is in the essential services sector and has quite a secure income inflow. It is a strong recommendation in my view and should be a stock in any Singapore dividend investor portfolio. Investment income for life have done a good analysis on it and I will not steal his thunder. Do read it up on here. 

No SGD Currency Appreciation makes Local Property Less Attractive

Singapore property wise, with the lack of currency appreciation and increasing taxes on properties in Singapore, to foreign investors, owning a Singapore property may not be attractive at all. Expect prices not to go as high as previous times.

In short, Singapore investors should look towards owning foreign currency denominated assets. Firstly, their returns are better and secondly, they face the benefit of a currency upside. 

Walk the Talk

With my outlook of 2025, I am no longer holding much Sing Dollar, until USD/SGD reaches 1.38, I will be holding my money in US dollar. The added benefit is that the US dollar deposits here are 3-4 %, higher than T bills. If one opens a multi currency account, keep money in USD and then place USD Fixed deposit. More interest is earned. There is an arbitage opportunity now to earn more yield overseas with an added benefit of currency appreciation.

Portfolio for Dec 2024- Fruits of High Dividend for 2025

The portfolio saw no additions or selling down of entire stakes. 

With the changes in Singapore's REIT regulations, I had added PRIME US REIT (due to the larger buffer it has now), YZJFH was another addition.

Dividend Are Coming In From US and HK REITs

As I have said often, yields provided by overseas REITs are excellent. Utdhampshire and LINK REIT provides 8.5% and 7.5% dividend return respectively. The upside is that with inbuilt rental escalations for their leases and a low leverage ratio, both REITs are likely to increase their dividend over the next few years. Superb investments which will best any property investment in Singapore.  

PRIME US REIT (an addition this week) is a prime candidate to increase its dividend. This is due to the larger buffer it has gained and with Washington Building regaining rental income, its ICR should be large enough to reinstate some dividend.

Asia Pay TV Trust while it does give a 13% dividend yield; in my view will not increase its dividend due to a crushing debt and slowing business. The key is the status of its debt renewal in June 2025.

Given the above though, my likely next addition should be Asia Pay TV Trust because it has a major financial event, the renewal of the debt in 2025. A renewal would boost share prices and a failure means the inverse. However, I am optimistic a renewal in debt would be completed due to its cashflow ability.

Expected Dividend for 2025- $35,000

Forecast of an annual $35,000 dividend still remains. Starting from next year, each quarter I will be logging the dividends received. 

The portfolio composition is unlikely to change because I do not see any REIT which has a better risk/reward ratio out there.

Business Times Just Published that REITs are Good Investments Well It is True but No One Dares to Say....

Business Times (Singapore) has published an opinion piece that choosing REITs over an investment home may be better

*Article requires subscription so might be hard to read in full.

Well as I had covered investing in REITs, REIT give much better returns than owning a property. I have done the maths here

In short, choosing the right REIT will yield good returns. In fact for my favourite REIT (United Hampshire US REIT), without leverage it is giving 8% dividend yield and on equity.

A Challenge to A Property Agent

I am willing to challenge an agent out there based on a condo project which has: 

(i) more than 100 residential units in the project, 

(ii) pricing based on latest URA pricing for condo sold (for capital gains), 

(iii) rental income based on URA rental for a transaction in the condo project; and deducting (a) annual IRAS non owner occupied property tax rate from effective 1 Jan 2025 based on annual value=Rental multiply 12 months; (b) 0.5 months agent commission annually and (c) loan expense of 4% annual interest on the 50% leverage) based on a 50% cash/50% leverage model for the condo. 

To give any property agent the advantage, I will not use a 50% cash/50% leverage model for Unitedhampshire US REIT (Phillips Securities provide loan of only 4.5% interest) but I am confident with this model, I will trash any property agent, hence I will make it nice and peg it to a 100% cash only model for buying United Hampshire US REIT (over a 5 year period), where UnitedHampshire US REIT purchased share price is 45.5 US cents based on today's pricing. Returns for Utdhampshire US REIT will be based on any capital gains + dividend over 05 years.

Time period: Ends on 31 Dec 2029

I am quite confident my pick of the REIT will surpass the returns of Singapore condo property