Friday, 2 January 2026

Investors Should Invest Like Minority Shareholders, Not as Owner of a Company

While the title may sound contradictory, it reflects a deeper reality. Reading and researching about the Singapore REIT sector and how, over the years, retail investors have suffered substantial losses, it dawned onto me the reality of investing in Singapore.

The Lippo Playbook- Enriching Themselves not Singapore Investors

The Lippo Group owns stakes in several SGX-listed REITs, many of which now trade well below their IPO prices. The recurring pattern is familiar:

Properties are sold by the parent company into a Singapore-listed REIT at high valuations, often supported by temporary income support guarantees. These guarantees help justify the valuation during the IPO or acquisition phase. However, once the income support expires, the underlying performance of the assets frequently fails to meet expectations.

The REIT is then left servicing high levels of debt incurred to fund these acquisitions—without the corresponding cash flow to support them. Over time, this results in declining book value, falling unit prices, and permanent capital loss for unitholders.

A prominent example is Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, which has lost approximately 98% of its share value since IPO. While retail investors bore the losses, the Lippo Group profited handsomely through property divestments and years of management fees.

Where Is the Skin in the Game?

This raises a broader issue: the lack of meaningful alignment between REIT sponsors, managers, and retail investors.

In my view, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has failed to adequately address this structural flaw. The lesson learned by many REIT managers appears to be that they can take excessive risks, while losses are ultimately and majority absorbed by unitholders.

Take Manulife US REIT as an example. Manulife originally owned 100% of the assets but spun it off into the REIT and reduced its stake to below 10% at IPO to meet regulatory requirements. Meanwhile, Manulife continued to earn management fees while operating on a leverage of 10:1with other people’s money. So it only had less than 10% of its original capital at risk. Too much risk was then taken by the REIT manager post IPO through its acquisitions, while employing this strategy of shifting ownership from 100% to 10:1 leverage on "other people money" 

The Lippo Group has followed a similar strategy: repeatedly diluting investors while selling assets from the parent company to the listed REIT at valuations with little margin of safety. Comparable behavior has also been observed among Singapore blue-chip sponsors, including Keppel.

The Captive Buyer Problem

In Singapore, a listed REIT effectively becomes a captive buyer for its sponsor.

A parent company can sell a building it previously owned outright to a child REIT in which it holds only a 10–30% stake. Yet it retains control through the REIT manager, continues to earn management fees, and benefits from leverage funded primarily by retail investors.

This asset-light model is immensely attractive to sponsors: profits are privatized, risks are socialized. When things go well, sponsors earn fees and crystallize gains; when things go poorly, it is the unitholders who suffer most of the losses.

Why Low Price-to-Book REITs Stay Cheap

When a REIT trades significantly below book value, two explanations typically apply:

(1) The valuations are wrong.
In several cases, properties are eventually sold at prices far below their stated appraised values at each financial year end. Prior to the sale, the REIT conveniently revises its valuation downward to justify the transaction—despite both valuations being conducted only months apart.

(2) The valuations are right, but managers refuse to act.
In theory, a REIT trading at 0.5–0.6x book value could unlock enormous value by selling assets and using the proceeds for unit buybacks. This would reduce leverage, strengthen the balance sheet, and potentially deliver significant gains to remaining unitholders.

In practice, this almost never happens.

Why? Because selling properties reduces the asset base—and with it, the management fees earned by the REIT manager. While such actions would benefit unitholders, they conflict directly with the economic incentives of the manager, who is often also the largest shareholder or sponsor.

As unitholders, we may focus on mathematical value accretion. But we must remember this fundamental truth: REIT managers (who tend to be related to the Sponsor) are paid to manage assets, not to maximize unit prices. Such example could be seen in how the parent ESR was managing Sabana REIT.

Minority Shareholder Problem Not Just Happening in the REIT Sector

The challenges discussed in this article are not confined to the REIT sector. More broadly, they reflect a structural issue faced by minority investors in Singapore-listed companies.

In many family-controlled firms, controlling shareholders retain decisive influence over capital allocation and executive appointments. It is not uncommon for related parties to be installed in senior management roles with generous compensation, while dividends to minority shareholders remain limited or inconsistent.

Although there have been instances of shareholder pushback at annual general meetings—such as at Stamford Land and Hong Fok—these efforts rarely lead to meaningful change. Minority shareholders, by definition, lack the voting power to alter outcomes when control remains firmly in the hands of founding families.

The existing governance framework in Singapore offers limited practical protection for minority investors in such situations. While disclosure requirements are robust, economic outcomes continue to favor controlling shareholders, often at the expense of long-term minority returns.

This imbalance has broader implications. Weak minority investor confidence contributes to low market participation, persistent valuation discounts, and a lack of depth in Singapore’s equity market—an issue policymakers are now seeking to address. Without stronger alignment between control and capital, reforms aimed solely at boosting listings or liquidity are unlikely to succeed.

Sunday, 28 December 2025

Manulife US REIT Pivot: Need to Guard Against Unfair Value Transfer by the Sponsor (Manulife)

Following the EGM approval for Manulife US REIT (MUST) to pivot into other property segments such as retail, co-living, and industrial assets, the REIT has indicated that its sponsor, Manulife, holds a pipeline of assets in the US and Canada for potential acquisition. And this pipeline of assets referring to third-party properties that are through the Sponsor’s deal platform are accessible to MUST to acquire, and the Acquisition Mandate does not cover the acquisition of assets from interested parties related to MUST, including the Sponsor. 

As MUST increasingly relies on sponsor-sourced transactions, minority unitholders must be vigilant against value transfer arising from acquisitions priced at materially weaker economics than those observable in comparable US market transactions.

The Litmus Test

In the waiver obtained from the Monetary Authority of Singapore MAS, in the event MUST's leverage is above 50%, it can only buy a property (i) funded with a capital structure of no more than 40% debt and (ii) ICR of at least 1.6 times.

This is a low bar to cross. First, an ICR threshold of 1.6x primarily ensures debt serviceability, but offers limited margin of safety against interest rate volatility, leasing risk, or NPI normalization, particularly when acquiring assets from a related sponsor. Second, US properties in a particular segment can be bought at a higher margin of safety. 

Therefore, the question is how fair will the sponsor, Manulife, be.

United Hampshire US REIT- The Fair Guage

MUST is allowed to buy retail US assets such as Strip Malls. And interestingly, there is one US REIT listed in SGX that is in this business. So, let's see how a few properties in this REIT stacks up assuming a 6% weighted average interest cost and a 40% debt funding (ironically United Hampshire is also geared close to 40%)

Property Name/ Valuation/ NPI/ ICR (assuming 40% debt at 6% interest weightage)

  • St Lucie West /$101 million/$5.877 million/2.4x ICR
  • Dover Marketplace /$17.2 million/$1.187million/2.87x ICR
  • Albany (Divested)/$23.8million/$1.581million/2.76x ICR
  • Hudson Valley Plaza (Divested)/$36.5million/$2.481million/2.83x ICR

Across multiple grocery-anchored strip mall assets, observable market transactions support stabilized ICRs between 2.4x and 2.8x under conservative funding assumptions of 40% leverage and 6% interest cost. This suggests that acquisitions clearing only the MAS minimum of 1.6x ICR would fall materially below prevailing market economics.

If the sponsor-sourced transaction is selling at too high a price, MUST management should just approach United Hampshire US REIT to buy its supermarket/mall assets at 2x to 2.4 x ICR. Given the availability of listed market benchmarks, it would be reasonable for MUST’s board to adopt an internal acquisition hurdle of at least 2.4x ICR for sponsor-sourced asset

The second layer of safeguard should be the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). While MAS’s waiver sets minimum prudent limits, the burden of ensuring valuation fairness rests primarily with MUST’s board, independent valuers, and unitholders. MAS’s role should be to ensure that sponsor transactions are accompanied by enhanced disclosures and robust independent review to ensure the property purchases from the sponsor platform is fair.

Wednesday, 24 December 2025

UnUsUaL Holdings: High Risk, Poor Earning Visibility. All Talk Little Action

Overview

UnUsUaL is a Singapore-based listed company focused on live event production, concert promotion, and entertainment services. Its segments include:

  • Production — stage sound system, lighting, technical services

  • Promotion — ticketing, sponsorships, performance rights

Why It’s “Unusual”

This is not a typical industrial or financial company; it organizes live entertainment events and try to sell the tickets for a profit.

For me, why I had started looking into Unusual is that while it is a profitable entity, its share price has faced selling pressure because its major shareholder, MM2 Asia, is in financial difficulty and financial institution are selling its owned "Unusual" shares to repay the debt.

The question I'm trying to answer is if Unusual share price justifiable at 3.8 sg cents (market cap 39 million). 

Short answer is "No", and I think Unusual is only a worthwhile investment at SG$12 million or 1.1 Sg cents

Valuation and Competitor

81% of Unusual Revenue are in the "Promotion Segment" of live entertainment and concert events such as organizing Jay Chou and Air Supply concerts. Its main competitor in Singapore is "Live Nation" who has done bigger concerts related to K pop fans. 

Unusual positions itself to appeal to a specific concert goer group such as Mandopop and Japanese Bands and old-time English bands. A unique segment on its own, Unusual has been struggling to churn enough concerts and is barely profitable. Overall, the company earns $670,000 in the first half of its financial year.

Prior years, it has been making losses over failed live promotion events. In short, ROE and ROA have been negative which shows the high level of risk in investing in its shares.

Hence, my view is the company will churn out $1.2-$1.5 million annual profits and a SG$12 million market cap is where it is cheap enough for the execution risk.

Unusual has Little Upcoming Live-Concerts

A simple check on its website shows it only has 02 upcoming events in 02 months

That's worrying. In fact, if you look at its pace of organizing concerts, it has only been able to do an average of 1 event monthly. The number of concerts it organizes has been decreasing since 2022.

Investors who are buying Unusual shares now at 3.8 SG cents are likely going to face further losses.

Saturday, 13 December 2025

This REIT Paid 9.1% Dividend and Still Went Higher, Beating Singapore Condo Prices and Rental

One year ago, in December 2024, United Hampshire US REIT was trading at 45.5 US cents. At the time, Business Times wrote an article where the reporter too felt owning instruments such as Singapore listed REITs was better than owning a private property for investment " Why lock up millions in a Singapore condo for low single-digit returns when a boring, necessity-based REIT was paying you real cash? 

For simplicity, I offered a comparison against a REIT which I had a strong conviction in.

United Hampshire US REIT rents retail spaces across United States mainly to Grocery supermarkets, banks as their branch store front, F&B outlets. In a nutshell, the REIT is positioned as a stripe mall, the heartland mall style similar to Singapore's Fraser Centrepoint Trust.

A year later, the numbers have largely answered this question.

Capital Gains

United Hampshire US REIT closed at 50.5 US cents. That is an 11% capital gain. Now contrast this with Singapore private residential property, using official Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data

According to URA’s Private Residential Property Price Index, non-residential private home prices rose 5.7% on a Q3-to-Q3 comparison basis (Q3 2024 to Q3 2025). This URA index measures pure price movement only, excluding agent commission of 2% and property income taxes. 

Factoring a 50% leverage for a private property purchase and an interest expense cost of 2.6%, the private home leveraged return is 10.1% capital gain.

United Hampshire US REIT Wins

Dividend vs Rental Returns

United Hampshire US REIT paid 4.14 US cents, this gives 9.1% yield. Tax free, incurring no IRAS taxes

Private Home only gave 4% yield, and you have an incoming IRAS tax bill 

United Hampshire US REIT Wins

Capital Structure of the REIT

The REIT is in the stable US basic consumer segment and have signed long lease periods with its supermarket tenants

Its leverage ratio is 40%, much lower than many Singapore REITs and has no refinancing risk until 2029.

A year on, the lesson is clear: high-yielding, well-managed REITs can outperform traditional residential property on a total-return basis, especially when measured against official URA data. While property remains a stable, long-term store of wealth, this comparison reinforces a simple truth: in today’s environment, income-producing REITs can be the smarter to grow your wealth. Hopefully this lesson will ring true end 2029

Sunday, 7 December 2025

United Hampshire REIT 3Q Update- Loan Refinancing and Higher Distributable Income with 33% upside

 UtdHampshire US REIT posted two updates in recent months. Below are a key summary:

  • Refinanced A New Loan Facility which ensures no refinancing risk until 2029
  • Distributable income for 3Q2025 was 15.5% higher than last year's 
  • Acquisition of Dover Marketplace in Aug 2025 and 5,000 sq ft in Florida Blue Expansion will increase distributable income
DPU Set to Rise

In 1H2025, DPU was at 2.09 US cents. Factoring in the acquisition in August 2025, distributable income was US$7 million (1.17 US cents). If we put it on a half year basis, it is likely Utd Hampshire US REIT DPU will have 2.35 US cents.

The second positive is SOFR rate is now reducing for its tied to the US Fed interest rates which is reducing. This means the REIT will be reporting higher earnings and higher cashflow. However, my view the REIT manager will likely reduce its payout ratio from 96% down to 90%. Hence, DPU will remain at 2.35 US cents on a half yearly basis for a few financial 6-month period. This equates to 4.7 US cents in annual dividend

I personally expect Utd Hampshire US REIT to maintain dividend at this number even with declining US interest rates. On a 51 US cents share price, and annual dividend of 4.7 US cents, the share price is a 9.2% dividend yielder

This is rather generous, and it will not be unreasonable to expect a yield compression to 7% after market realizes the resilience of its dividend mainly because of its contractual 3+3+3 leases and tenants who are grocers and banks. Target price is 68 US cents

Refinancing Risk Deferred Until 2029

The REIT has secured a new loan facility which covers the refinancing of the future Upland Mortgage. The new loan deal is tied to SOFR rate again (current SOFR =3.92%). Based on the effective interest rate Utd Hampshire US REIT pays, previously Utd Hampshire US REIT's loan facility was on a SOFR + 1.5% margin. New loan deal should be the same. 

With a long way to go before the next refinancing, investors can be rest assured the REIT can continuously give out dividend and at 39% leverage ratio, this REIT is geared in a comfortable range. The REIT manager has an easy job. At such gearing, I feel no further acquisition should be done.

Portraying the REIT as a conservatively geared entity with 9% dividend yield should be the message it is drumming to the investing community. At 51 US cents, it is a good purchase with a much higher upside.

Friday, 5 December 2025

Finalized the Portfolio With Many Singapore Mid-Small Caps

Following on the idea to "revitalize the Singapore stock" market, I have finalized my portfolio with the purchase of more mid cap stocks in my portfolio.

Unlike active fund, it will be passive without much movement from now. Interestingly, one will observe I have totally sold off Olam and new additions are Frencken, YZJ Financial and Yanlord.

Why I have returned to YZJ Financial is so that I have some exposure to the financial sector + aligning myself in instance YZJFH is able to redeem its China debt investments successfully. For Frencken, I am vested for the financial effects it will reap when it completes the building of its larger production capacity factory in 2027.

It's a Dividend Portfolio

Based on forward dividend estimates, many Singapore stocks in the portfolio provide high dividend, with estimated yield of 4.5% on this portfolio. This is due to Alibaba (which can be bought via SDR) being a large component with little dividend. It is estimated United Hampshire and Asian Pay TV will provide about the same amount of dividend as 2025.

For PRIME US REIT, an increase in dividend will start from 2027 when new rentals start their rent collection phase.

As this continues, the expectation is that a $70,000 dividend level will be achieved in 2027

Current Portfolio Value is $1,215,000

From 2026, I will be recording the dividend received from the below portfolio composition.


Thursday, 13 November 2025

Asian Pay TV Trust 3Q Results- Stable 10% Dividend Yield and Paring Down Debts

Asian Pay TV Trust (APTT) has released their 3Q results, the first full results after their refinancing of debt. Of which significant new information can be found. The summary of the results is as follows:

  • Overall Revenue Still in Decline as no of TV subscribers in Traditional TV continues to fall
  • 90% of Onshore Debt has been hedged at 1.54% Taiwan TAIBOR, indicating overall debt interest rate to 3.6-3.7%
  • Management guided the additional interest cost of S$2 million to S$3 million for this year with interest expense to decline by $2 million next year
  • 2025 Dividend Still Set for 1.05 SG cents
Cashflow and Dividend

Declining EBITDA margins leads to downstream less cash generated. Over the next 7 years, it is likely APTT will generate $100-$120 million annually.

With annual CAPEX needs of $28 million, taxation of $10 million, interest expense of $40 million (and declining), there is sufficient headroom to maintain the 1.05 SG cents dividend which requires $19 million over the next 7 years.

Another Important thing is paying down the Debt.


Over the past 5 years, APTT has started to shrink its debt. However, one would notice "Net debt to EBITDA" ratio has increased. Thish indicates APTT EBITDA (Cashflow) is shrinking faster than it is shrinking its debt.

This is a ratio to keep watch; a ratio that is 10 or above indicates the cashflow has fallen too fast relative to the shrinking of debt. APTT's Taiwanese bankers would be worried. That said, APTT's current 8.1 ratio is still good and it has an interest coverage ratio of 3.8 times. 

For REITs, ICR of below 2 times is where it is dangerous; however, APTT is at 3.8 times which shows it is relatively safe.

As an investor, I am looking at how fast APTT pays down before the next tranche of refinancing in 2032. If APTT is able to reduce the debt from 1,163 million to 800 million by 2032; I believe dividend will maintain.

Baseline Expectations and Target Price

Much of APTT's future hinges on how well the Trust Manager deleverages while it encounters slowing cashflow and overall revenue. If executed properly, the baseline is that APTT will provide 1.05 SG cents of dividend annually to shareholders.

This is my baseline scenario. In addition, I believe for its business model, a 8% dividend demanded is fair. Hence my target price for APTT is 13.1 Sg cents (25% upside for owning APTT).